Apple is poised to reclaim the global smartphone crown, overtaking Samsung for the first time in several years. According to new estimates from Counterpoint Research, the U.S. company is expected to finish the year with a 10% increase in iPhone sales, while longtime market leader Samsung will see a more modest 4.6% growth. Analyst Yang Wang told Bloomberg that much of Apple’s momentum is driven by the strong performance of the iPhone 17 series, released in September.
The new lineup has sparked high demand in key markets and has attracted consumers who purchased smartphones during the early months of the pandemic and are now upgrading to newer generations. Another element influencing Apple’s rise is the robust second-hand market. Counterpoint estimates that between 2023 and mid-2025, approximately 358 million used iPhones were sold worldwide.
These users are expected to transition to new models in the coming years, providing Apple with a steady base of future customers. Because of these combined trends, Counterpoint predicts that Apple will maintain its position as the world’s top smartphone maker at least through 2029, marking one of the longest leadership streaks in the iPhone’s history. Since its debut in 2007, the iPhone has shaped the direction of modern smartphones with its touchscreen interface and app-based ecosystem.
Although Android allowed Samsung and other manufacturers to dominate the market with more affordable devices, Apple retained a secure hold on the premium segment. Even during years when Samsung led global unit sales, Apple frequently regained the top spot during the holiday season. The rivalry between both companies even extended into the courtroom, when Apple accused Samsung of copying the design and technology of early iPhone models.
Apple ultimately won the case, though Samsung remained the market leader for many years. Market researchers note that consumer behavior has shifted in recent years. More users are opting for higher-end smartphones and keeping them for longer periods — a trend that particularly benefits Apple, thanks to its ecosystem of services and strong premium-brand reputation.
As neither Apple nor Samsung has published official sales figures for several generations, current market assessments rely on independent calculations, supply-chain data, and industry research.
